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Understanding the 2025–2026 U.S. Winter Weather Outlook

June 18, 2026 · The Clime Team
Understanding the 2025–2026 U.S. Winter Weather Outlook

As the 2025–2026 winter season approaches, understanding the expected weather patterns is crucial for preparation and planning. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter outlook, providing insights into anticipated temperature and precipitation trends across the United States.

What is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and how does it affect winter weather?

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, characterized by periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure. These fluctuations significantly influence global weather patterns, including those in the United States. The two primary phases of ENSO are El Niño and La Niña.

  • El Niño: This phase is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. El Niño typically brings wetter and cooler conditions to the southern U.S. and drier and warmer conditions to the northern U.S. (climate.gov)

  • La Niña: Conversely, La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region. It often leads to drier and warmer conditions in the southern U.S. and cooler and wetter conditions in the northern U.S. (climate.gov)

What is the current ENSO status for the 2025–2026 winter season?

As of June 2025, ENSO-neutral conditions are present, with a 48% chance of neutral conditions and a 41% chance of La Niña for November–January. This suggests that neither El Niño nor La Niña is likely to dominate, making long-term climate trends and local factors more influential in shaping the upcoming winter weather patterns. (staging.snowbrains.com)

What are the anticipated temperature trends for the 2025–2026 winter season?

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across most of the United States during the 2025–2026 winter season. Specifically, warmer-than-average temperatures are expected in the southern Rockies, Southwest, southern Plains, and much of the East and Midwest. Alaska is also likely to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures, particularly along the southern and eastern coasts. (staging.snowbrains.com)

What are the expected precipitation patterns for the 2025–2026 winter season?

Precipitation forecasts indicate that the northern tier of the U.S., including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and Great Lakes region, may experience wetter-than-average conditions. In contrast, the southern U.S., from the Four Corners region through the Southeast and Gulf Coast, is expected to be drier than average. (climate.gov)

How does La Niña influence winter weather patterns?

La Niña, the cool phase of ENSO, influences winter weather by shifting atmospheric circulation patterns. During La Niña, the jet stream often moves farther north, leading to cooler and wetter conditions in the northern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the southern U.S. (earthsky.org)

What are the key takeaways for the 2025–2026 winter season?

  • Temperature: Above-normal temperatures are anticipated across most of the U.S., with the southern Rockies, Southwest, southern Plains, and much of the East and Midwest expected to be particularly warm.

  • Precipitation: The northern U.S. is likely to experience wetter-than-average conditions, while the southern U.S. may see drier-than-average conditions.

  • ENSO Status: Neutral conditions are expected to persist into early winter, with a 48% chance of neutral and a 41% chance of La Niña for November–January.

Understanding these patterns can help individuals and communities prepare for the upcoming winter season.

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