Understanding the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, is projected to be below-normal, with a 55% chance of reduced activity. This outlook is based on predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Expected Activity Levels

NOAA's forecast indicates:

• 8-14 Named Storms: Tropical systems with maximum sustained winds between 39-73 mph.
• 3-6 Hurricanes: Systems with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph.
• 1-3 Major Hurricanes: Systems with maximum sustained winds exceeding 111 mph.

These projections are centered below the 1991-2020 averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

Influencing Factors

The primary factors influencing this forecast include:

• El Niño Conditions: A moderate or stronger El Niño is expected to develop and persist through the hurricane season. El Niño conditions are typically associated with below-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

• Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs): Current SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR) are similar to those observed in late May, which can influence storm formation and intensity. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

• Vertical Wind Shear: Weaker trade winds are currently observed, contributing to lower vertical wind shear. However, this is forecasted to reverse throughout the season as the expected El Niño event evolves. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

Implications for Preparedness

While the forecast suggests a below-normal season, it's crucial to remain vigilant. Hurricanes can still form and impact regions even in less active years. Residents in hurricane-prone areas should ensure they have updated emergency plans and supplies.

For the most accurate and up-to-date information, consult NOAA's official updates and local weather services.

Highlights:

• Climate Prediction Center - Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, Published on Wednesday, May 20