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Understanding Precipitation Forecasts for the United States in 2026

June 18, 2026 · The Clime Team
Understanding Precipitation Forecasts for the United States in 2026

In 2026, the United States is expected to experience varied precipitation patterns influenced by climate phenomena such as El Niño.

What Are the General Precipitation Trends for 2026?

The National Weather Service's 2026 National Hydrologic Assessment indicates a normal to below-normal flood risk across the Continental U.S. This is primarily due to an abnormally warm and dry winter, resulting in low snowpack and dry soils, which help mitigate flood responses. However, minor to moderate flooding is anticipated in regions like the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys, Lower Ohio and Missouri Valleys, parts of the Central and Northern Plains, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Minor flooding is also possible in areas of the Northeast, Southeast, and eastern Texas. (weather.gov)

How Does El Niño Affect Precipitation in 2026?

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society's May 2026 Climate Forecast Discussion highlights the development of El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the Niño 3.4 index reaching 0.47°C. This El Niño is expected to persist through at least the end of 2026, influencing global and regional weather patterns. The CCSR/IRI objective Multi-Model Probability Precipitation Forecast for June–August 2026 shows increased odds of below-normal precipitation across northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, the Indian Peninsula, parts of Australia, and the Maritime Continent. In the U.S., the southwestern United States and Mexico show increased probabilities of above-normal precipitation during August–October and September–November. (iri.columbia.edu)

What Are the Regional Precipitation Forecasts?

  • Western United States: The Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates that drought conditions are likely to persist across much of the West, with development expected in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, central Rockies, and Southwest. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

  • Southeastern United States: The same outlook suggests that areas in Florida, adjacent Georgia, and nearby coastal regions may experience above-normal precipitation, leading to potential drought improvement or removal. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

  • Central and Southern Great Plains: The Crop Monitor for AMIS June 2026 report indicates likely above-average precipitation over parts of these regions, which may lead to the development or expansion of drought conditions. (cropmonitor.org)

How Do These Forecasts Impact Water Resources?

The National Hydrologic Assessment notes that while widespread major flooding is not expected, minor to moderate flooding in certain regions could affect water resources. Additionally, the development of El Niño conditions may influence precipitation patterns, potentially leading to above-normal precipitation in some areas and below-normal in others. (weather.gov)

What Are the Implications for Agriculture?

The Crop Monitor for AMIS June 2026 report highlights that the June 2026 precipitation forecast indicates likely above-average precipitation over parts of the central and southern Great Plains and the Southeast, while below-average precipitation is likely over the Pacific Northwest and the northeastern Corn Belt. These variations can significantly impact crop yields and water availability for agriculture. (cropmonitor.org)

Understanding these forecasts is crucial for effective water resource management, agricultural planning, and preparing for potential flooding or drought conditions in various regions.

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