Climate Trends Cheat Sheet for 2026: Key Insights for the United States
In 2026, the United States experienced significant climate events, marked by record-breaking temperatures, varied precipitation patterns, and widespread drought conditions.
Record-Breaking Temperatures
The year began with unusually warm temperatures. January 2026 was the warmest on record for the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature of 33.2°F, 3.1°F above the 20th-century average. This warmth was particularly evident in the western states, where Oregon, California, Utah, and Arizona each recorded one of their six warmest starts to the year. (ncei.noaa.gov)
February continued this trend, ranking as the fourth warmest and fifth driest on record for the contiguous U.S. The average temperature was 40.4°F, 6.6°F above the 20th-century average. Notably, seven states experienced one of their two warmest Februaries on record, including Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Oklahoma. (ncei.noaa.gov)
March 2026 was the warmest March on record for the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature 9.4°F above the 20th-century average. This warmth was widespread, affecting over half of the country. (ncei.noaa.gov)
April 2026 continued the trend, ranking as the third-warmest April on record for the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature 3.75°F above the 20th-century average. This marked the 15th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average. (ncei.noaa.gov)
May 2026 was the second-warmest spring on record for the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature 4.9°F above the 20th-century average. Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas each recorded their warmest spring on record. (ncei.noaa.gov)
Precipitation Patterns
Despite the warmth, precipitation patterns varied across the country. February 2026 was the fifth driest on record for the contiguous U.S., with significant precipitation deficits in the northern Rockies, central Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. In contrast, above-average precipitation was observed in parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. (ncei.noaa.gov)
March 2026 saw much below-average precipitation across the West, Southwest, Plains, Deep South, and Southeast. Conversely, above-average precipitation was recorded in parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes region. (ncei.noaa.gov)
April 2026 experienced near-average precipitation across the contiguous U.S., with total precipitation averaging 2.69 inches, 0.17 inch above the 20th-century average. However, the year-to-date precipitation total was 7.49 inches, 1.98 inches below average, ranking as the second-driest January–April on record. (ncei.noaa.gov)
May 2026 was the driest May on record for the contiguous U.S., with an average precipitation of 7.43 inches, 0.50 inch below average. Despite this, parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes recorded much-above-average spring precipitation, with Michigan experiencing its wettest spring on record. (ncei.noaa.gov)
Drought Conditions
Drought conditions were a significant concern throughout 2026. By the end of March, about 59.9% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, an increase of about 5.0% from the beginning of the month. Drought conditions persisted or intensified across much of the interior West, Plains, Mississippi Valley, South, and Southeast. (ncei.noaa.gov)
The Spring Outlook released in March 2026 forecasted that drought conditions would worsen or develop in many areas of the West and south-central Plains. Factors influencing this outlook included the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), low snowpack in the West, and soil moisture content throughout the lower 48 states. (prod-01-alb-www-noaa.woc.noaa.gov)
By May 2026, drought conditions remained widespread, with more than half of the contiguous U.S. still affected. Although drought conditions improved across parts of the South, the Southeast experienced its greatest extent on record. (ncei.noaa.gov)
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status
In early 2026, La Niña conditions were present, with below-average sea surface temperatures observed in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions was expected in the coming months, with a 55% chance of ENSO-neutral through May–July 2026. El Niño was likely to emerge in June–August 2026, with a 62% chance, and persist through at least the end of 2026. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
Conclusion
The year 2026 was marked by unprecedented warmth across the United States, with record-breaking temperatures and significant drought conditions. These trends underscore the importance of monitoring climate patterns and preparing for their impacts on various sectors.
Highlights:
- Assessing the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in March 2026 | News | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Published on Tuesday, April 07
- Assessing the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in April 2026 | News | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Published on Thursday, May 07
- Assessing the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in May 2026 | News | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), Published on Sunday, June 07